Mortgage Rate Optimism Hits Survey High

photo displaying Consumer confidence with thumbs up and others

Mortgage Rate Optimism Hits Survey High

For the first time since Fannie Mae began its national housing survey (in 2010), a larger share of consumers believe mortgage rates will decrease over the next year, rather than increase.

A recent Fannie Mae Housing survey found that 8 out of 10 consumers were confident that rates would continue to fall, while just barely 1/3 of respondents felt rates would come down, while a close 28% felt rates would climb. 

But how does this help the real estate market? 

As I’ve written in past articles, the rate drop is only a part of the equation. Because inventory is still very low, prices have continued, albeit moderately, to climb, keeping many buyers out of the market because they simply can’t afford today’s home prices. 

Remember, we also have to be mindful of other home ownership expenses and we don’t see a drop in many of these; repair and maintenance services, replacement parts and yes, even grocery prices are playing a part. 

And I think Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist says it best and says what I’ve been saying:

"while home affordability may improve if actual mortgage rates continue moving downward, other parts of the affordability equation have yet to ease or improve for consumers. A large majority still think home prices will either increase or stay the same; the 'good time to buy' component continues to hover near its historical low; and fewer than one-in-five respondents indicated that their household income was significantly higher year over year, matching a survey low. All in all, while a lower mortgage rate path supports our forecast for a gradual increase in housing demand and sales activity in 2024, until we see a meaningful increase in housing supply, we expect affordability will remain a significant barrier to homeownership for many households."

Home Purchase Sentiment Index Component highlights

Its clear that in this short 2024 Consumers are feeling pretty good about the housing market. I think the one certainty, barring any "news worthy event", are that rates will come down. The uncertainty will only be answered in time; what effect will the expected rate cuts have on home prices?

think positive! meme

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